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高铁扣件业务发展速度之快
时间:2010-07-24 10:49 作者:宏胜建筑器材 点击:

      日前我们对晋亿实业进行了调研,就公司目前的经营情况、未来的发展方向等问题,与公司领导进行了交流。
  受益高铁建设,业绩大幅提升
    公司是国内紧固件行业龙头,紧固件广泛应用于各种物品的连接和紧固。紧固件是国民经济各部门应用范围最广、使用数量最多的机械基础件,素有“工业之米”之称。受金融危机影响,2009年公司业绩出现亏损。
     近年来随着国内高铁建设的推进,公司的高铁扣件产品持续获得订单,目前公司收入约一半来自高铁扣件产品,我们通过铁道部相关招标信息估计,目前公司在手高铁订单达19亿元左右,预计仅靠目前在手订单即可支撑2010年10-12亿元和2011年12亿元以上的销售收入,下半年还将有高铁陆续招标,预计公司中标后部分合同将在2011年实现供货。
     公司高铁扣件产能充足,具备竞争优势:作为国内高铁扣件产品系列最全,扣件橡胶垫板最早获得铁道部上道认证资格的公司,目前公司高铁扣件市场占有率约为20%。相比其他竞争对手,公司竞争优势明显,早在2002年,公司就开发了适应青藏高原恶劣气候的铁路扣件产品,并参与青藏铁路建设。
      我国高铁建设处于高速发展阶段:重工业化过程中,铁路运输在运送矿产品、大宗原料和大型设备方面较其他运输方式在经济、节能和运输能力方面具有特殊的优势。由于经济一体化趋向和巨大运能的需求我国已明确了“十一五”和未来至2020年的长期发展宏图。
     按照目前的规划,到2020年我国高铁客运专线里程将达到1.6万公里,但实际上原未列入我国铁路中长期计划运营里程超过2000公里的兰新二线已开工建设,我们预计2015年,我国高铁里程就可以达到1.6万公里,到2020年,我国高铁客运专线里程有望达到2.4万公里。
     我们估计2020年2.4万公里客运专线原沿线既有线均应将改造成重轨,而其他线路也应有部分线路进行重载改造,因此预计未来我国的重载铁路里程应不会低于高铁,而截至2011年底将建成的7800余公里高铁沿线的既有铁路,极有可能将首先进行改造。
     此外,高铁建成后的维护也将对公司产品带来需求,高铁扣件投入使用后的约5年时间内,有约1/3-1/2零部件需要陆续更换,随着高铁竣工里程的不断增长,维修市场将为公司带来可观的长期订单。
     中国高铁已经开始走出国门,未来如果海外市场开拓顺利,公司产品有可能用于海外高铁的修建,因此我们判断,在国内铁路建设轨道紧固件需求高峰过去以后,公司仍可依托铁路设备上的技术优势,获得持续发展的空间。

     We recently conducted a survey of Jin billion industry, the company's current business situation, future development and other issues, leading to an exchange with the company.
Benefit from high-speed railway construction, significantly improve performance
Is the domestic fastener industry leader, fasteners are widely used to connect the various items and fixing.  Fasteners are the most widely used national departments should use the largest number of Machine Components, known as "the rice industry," said.  By the financial crisis in 2009, company performance loss.
In recent years, with the promotion of domestic high-speed rail construction, the company's products continue to receive high-speed rail fastener orders, about half of current revenues come from high-speed rail fastener products, we have the relevant tender information by the Ministry of Railways estimates that the current high-speed rail in hand order of 19 billion yuan, is expected to orders in hand alone can currently support 10-12 billion in 2010 and 2011 more than 1.2 billion sales revenue in the second half after another will have high-speed rail tender, is expected to part company after successful contract supplier in 2011.
High-speed rail fastener production company sufficient competitive advantage: As the high-speed rail fastener product line the most complete, fastening rubber pad was the Ministry of Railways on the Road, the first certification of the company, the current company market share is about high-speed rail fastening 20%. Compared to other competitors, the company competitive advantage evident as early as 2002, the company developed to adapt to Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on the weather rail fastener products and to participate in the Qinghai-Tibet railway construction.
China's high-speed railway construction stage of rapid development: re-industrialization process, the railway transportation in the transportation of minerals, bulk materials and large equipment than other modes of transport in economic, energy and transport capacity has special advantages.  As the trend of economic integration and the huge demand for transport capacity in China has clearly the "Eleventh Five-Year" and in the future to 2020 grand long-term development.
 Under the current plan, by 2020 China's High Speed Rail Passenger mileage will reach 16,000 km, but in fact were not initially included in the long-term Program of China's railway mileage of more than 2000 km of orchid has started construction of new second-line, we expect by 2015, China High Speed Rail mileage can reach 16,000 kilometers by 2020, China's high-speed rail passenger line is expected to reach 24,000 km mileage.
We estimate that by 2020, 24,000 km along the existing railway passenger dedicated line of the original should be transformed into heavy rail, while the other lines overloaded circuits should also be part of the transformation, it is expected that the future of our country's overloaded rail mileage should not be less than the High Speed Rail and will be completed at the end of 2011 more than 7800 kilometers of high-speed rail along the existing railway, most likely will be the first to reform.
In addition, completion of high-speed rail maintenance will also bring demand for our products, high-speed rail fastener into use after about 5 years time, about 1/3-1/2 components need to gradually change, with the High Speed Rail increasing mileage completed and maintenance market, the company will bring significant long-term orders.
 China High Speed Rail has started to go abroad in the future if the overseas markets successfully, our products may be used for the construction of overseas iron, so we judge, track fasteners of railway construction in China over the past after the peak demand, the company still relies on railway equipment technological advantages, access to space for sustainable development.
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